Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] 2026 will be the first difficult year since the start of the full scale invasion but assessed that growing economic problems will not lead to social or political problems. / Russia Critical Threats
• [New] Mobile internet disruptions were recorded in at least half of Russia's regions every day in November. The Moscow Times
• [New] In return, Ukraine has bombed several Russian oil refineries and been targeting Moscow's shadow fleet of tankers in increasingly daring drone attacks, which it hopes will impose costs in terms of increased insurance, expensive delays and ships not daring to travel. The Guardian
• [New] Russia reportedly rejected a US-proposed temporary ceasefire, and a high ranking Kremlin official publicly indicated that Russia will reject many of the latest Ukrainian and European peace proposals. Critical Threats
• [New] Russia's weaponization of expendable Geran-2 drones with air-to-air missiles represents a paradigm shift toward low-cost, attritable aerial interceptors that threaten Ukraine's rotary-wing and counter-UAS aviation assets. Drone Warfare
• [New] Ukraine's claimed first-ever UUV attack on a Russian submarine in Novorossiysk harbor fundamentally challenges naval power projection by demonstrating that low-cost autonomous underwater systems can threaten the most sophisticated naval assets in defended ports. Drone Warfare
• [New] Predictive Analysis: Expect rapid iteration toward 500+ km/h interceptors within 12-18 months as Ukraine and Russia engage in speed-versus-evasion competition. Drone Warfare
• [New] Ukraine's domestic production of 400 km/h interceptor drone motors represents a critical step toward technological independence in counter-UAS warfare, directly challenging Russia's upgraded Shahed fleet while reducing strategic vulnerability to Chinese supply chain disruption. Drone Warfare
• [New] Ukraine's maritime drone campaign is operationally enforcing Western sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet more effectively than European legal mechanisms, creating a de facto naval blockade that threatens $28 billion in Russian oil export revenue. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia will likely accelerate development of counter-UUV (unmanned underwater vehicle) capabilities while relocating high-value assets beyond drone range, fundamentally altering naval basing strategies across contested waters. Drone Warfare
• [New] Ukraine's first successful underwater drone strike against a docked Russian submarine marks a paradigm shift in naval warfare, demonstrating that non-state and asymmetric actors can now threaten strategic nuclear assets in heavily defended ports using commercially-derived technology. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia will intensify infrastructure strikes to maximize the cost-per-defense ratio, forcing Ukraine to expend expensive interceptors against cheaper drones and missiles, while betting that Western publics will not sustain 0.25% GDP contributions indefinitely. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia and peer competitors will likely accelerate development of saturation attack capabilities, hypersonic systems, and electronic warfare countermeasures specifically designed to overwhelm layered defences. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russian ISR drones are systematically probing NATO airspace boundaries while conducting Black Sea surveillance operations to counter Ukrainian maritime drone threats, exposing critical gaps in alliance air defence coordination. Drone Warfare
• [New] The strategic imperative to protect shadow fleet operations-worth billions in sanctions-evading oil revenues-justifies the risk, and Russia will likely continue maritime surveillance missions while implementing improved fail-safe protocols to prevent future crashes over hostile territory. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia will likely intensify drone incursions into NATO airspace to further constrain allied support, while Ukraine may prioritize asymmetric counter-air capabilities including long-range strike systems targeting Russian air defence networks and drone launch sites. Drone Warfare
• [New] China and Iran will prioritize UUV swarm tactics against carrier groups and forward bases, while Russia will likely retaliate by supplying UUV technology to anti-Western proxies, creating a new proliferation crisis in contested maritime zones globally. Drone Warfare
• [New] China's systematic enablement of Russia's Geran drone program has created a cost-asymmetric warfare model that threatens to collapse traditional air defence economics across NATO and the Indo-Pacific while establishing a replicable blueprint for authoritarian technology transfer networks. Drone Warfare
• [New] Every Russian naval asset now faces undetectable threats, forcing dispersion or continuous at-sea operations that degrade readiness. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia's new intermediate-range ballistic missile, codenamed Oreshnik, will be ready for combat deployment by the end of 2025. The Moscow Times
• [New] Russia had begun moving toward mass production of the Oreshnik, having previously touted its destructive power as comparable to that of a nuclear weapon and claiming it could not be intercepted. The Moscow Times
• [New] Russian President Vladimir Putin is warning that his country will extend its gains of Ukrainian territory if peace talks are not successful. NPR
• [New] Russia will not accept any European troops in Ukraine to monitor a ceasefire and provide security guarantees. EA WorldView

Last updated: 27 December 2025