Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] The Defence Commission would like to emphasise that the submitted proposals may need to be adjusted depending on the development of Russia's full-scale illegal invasion of Ukraine and the risk of further deterioration of the security situation. Regeringskansliet
• [New] Senior Belarusian officials made false claims about alleged Western threats to Belarus, resembling recent Russian efforts to baselessly tie the West to alleged terrorist acts against Russia. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] Oil prices rose over the week reaching near six-month highs on heightened risk of escalation in the Middle East, ongoing Ukrainian attacks against Russian refineries and an unconfirmed oil spill in Kazakhstan. American Chemistry Council
• [New] The U.S. had pushed Ukraine to stop its attacks on Russia's oil refineries for fear of spikes in global oil prices and the risk of Russian retaliation. Global Defense Corp
• [New] Through Chinese support, Russia has largely reconstituted its defence industrial base, which has an impact not just on the battlefield in Ukraine but poses a larger threat, we believe, to broader European security. The Washington Post
• [New] European Union countries possessing Patriot air defence systems gave no clear signal on Monday whether they might be willing to supply them to Ukraine, which is desperately seeking at least seven of the missile batteries to help fend off Russian air attacks. The Boston Globe
• [New] Considering the political ascent of Russia and China on the African continent, the G7 should be more responsive to Botswana's concerns and urgently assess the risk of sanctions on Russian diamonds hurting Botswana more than Russia. businesslive
• [New] The Victory electoral bloc will likely allow the Kremlin to focus on a unified political effort in Moldova instead of maintaining relations with multiple pro-Russian Moldovan actors and parties, as it has done recently. Critical Threats
• [New] Ukraine is facing an existential threat as Russia continues its barbaric invasion, risking the security and stability of all of Europe. GOV.UK
• [New] Without the United States continuing its arms and ammunition lifeline to Ukraine, Russia could score a victory that would prompt it to march deeper into Europe, drawing the US into another world war. CNN
• [New] Russian forces may hope that continued and possibly intensified missile and drone strikes will be able to collapse the Ukrainian energy grid and force Ukraine to contend with a humanitarian crisis alongside its ongoing defensive operations. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] Russian officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, are increasingly framing the war in Ukraine as part of a wider existential conflict with the West in hopes of justifying a long-term Russian war effort. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] An increase in the number of Patriot systems, for instance, would not just help defend cities like Kharkiv from missile attack but would blunt the threat from Russian warplanes dropping huge bombs on front-line targets like Chasiv Yar. CNN
• [New] French President Emmanuel Macron caused Russia to renew its nuclear threats after he suggested last month that NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine should not be ruled out. Al Jazeera
• [New] Russia, distracted by its war in Ukraine, risks losing influence in the Caucasus region, which it sees as its historic sphere of influence. Al Jazeera
• [New] Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine is in its third year now, and there are no signs that Europe's biggest land war since World War Two might end any time soon. BBC News
• [New] The House's version of the aid bill pushes the Biden administration to provide long-range ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) to Ukraine, which could be used to target Russian supply lines. The Independent
• [New] Russia could be encouraged by the U.S. debate over aid for Ukraine and called on the House of Representatives to pass a Ukraine aid bill. CNBC
• [New] Hezbollah could trigger regional war by hitting Israel, and an Israeli response could then prompt the involvement of Iran from Syria, Iran directly, potentially Russia, and you have got a world war. The Times of Israel
• [New] Any potential delay from Estonia could leave the already fragile Ukrainian front lines vulnerable to Russian attacks at a time when Moscow is bolstering its ammunition production capacity and rapidly diversifying its supply channels with significant support from China and North Korea. hudson
• [New] The Kremlin will try to emphasize that elite Ukrainian special forces are participating in hostilities in Africa at a time when Russia is waging a genocidal war in Ukraine. Ukrinform
• [New] The Kremlin plans to accuse Ukrainian special forces of using US-made weapons in Sudan and leak fabricated photos of trophy weapons supposedly taken from Ukrainian forces in Sudan to Russian and Libyan media. Institute for the Study of War

Last updated: 27 April 2024